Thursday, September 27, 2007

Google 2.0, $100 billion revenue and my prediction

Larry Dignan of ZDNet has a post on how Google can get to $100 billion per some Wall St. analyst. And I want in on this scam. But before I pontificate, here is a quote from the blog post:

Google is projected by Wall Street to have annual revenue of $15.7 billion in 2008 and $19 billion in 2009. But the ambitions are higher–more like $100 billion in annual revenue. The big question: How will Google get there?

That question is being addressed in a report by Stephen Arnold, of ArnoldIT. Arnold made the rounds at Bear Stearns providing briefings about his report. In the report, Google 2.0: The Calculating Predator, Arnold analyzed Google’s patent pipeline and linked them to business strategies. Simply put, Arnold is trying to figure out what Google wants to be when it grows up.

Larry has some choice sub-headings like
  • Extrapolating Google’s potential business strategies takes guesswork.
  • Will math rule the world?
The discussion on how Google is building a hypercube and not a cube is just mind-blowing stuff. Why didn't I think of this? BigTable is better than a Table. So HyperCube is better than Cube. I think I am going to build the following artifacts:
  1. Meta Search Engine > Search Engine
  2. AllofyouTube > YouTube (In stead of you, I take care of all of you.)
  3. HMail > GMail
  4. Temporal Time Shifting Super Ultra xPhone with built-in customizable, configurable meta browser and support for WiMax... mmm... 3.0
Okay. Now, I fully understand how Google will get to $100 billion in revenue. Its basically by doing it in $30 billion dollar chunks, thrice.

But more importantly, I get how Arnold will get to a $10 million bonus soon:

Step 1: Come up with an outrageous revenue number for Google.

Step 2: Become famous. Drive business for the company (I assume ArnoldIT is his gig). $640 a pop, all it costs is about the price of one Google share.

Step 3:
Well, there is 2 paths to $10 million.

Step 3a:
If Google gets to $100bn in revenue, this guy becomes the biggest genius ever (in retrospective analysis). And gets to make probably much much more than my conservative $10 million estimate.

Step 3b:
If Google fails to get to $100bn in revenue, he follows Henry Blodget and writes a book. And with or without the book, all he needs to sell is a few thousand copies of the $640 report - 15,625 copies to be precise.

So, here is what I am predicting:
Arnold makes $10 million in personal income before Google makes $100 billion in revenue.

Note: My report on Arnold making $10 million will be available for $64 (one-tenth the cost of Arnold's report). I accept PayPal only. No Google Checkout payment facility available, yet.


Anonymous said...

Unknown said...

The $100 billion number came from Google's March 2006 analysts' day meeting. Seemed like a reasonable goal to me. Stephen E. Arnold

Anshu Sharma said...

The number may have come from Google's analyst day meeting but its certainly not a reasonable goal. I am sure someone at Google has read the book Black Swan and other tomes on unpredictability.

Its always possible for a company like Google to reach $100bn in revenue but its much more likely that they will never reach that goal. (Confidence of my prediction: 99% only).